Nature Communications
Article
COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.
Juliane Oliveira
Daniel Jorge
Rafael Veiga
Moreno Rodrigues
Matheus Torquato
Nivea da Silva
Rosemeire Fiaccone
Luciana Cardim
Felipe Pereira
Caio de Castro
Aureliano Paiva
Alan Amad
Ernesto Lima
Diego Souza
Suani Pinho
Pablo Ramos
Roberto Andrade
Publication
Year of publication: 2021
Volume: 12
Section: 333
Date published: 12 January 2021